6. Russia. Various Scenarios of Its Future

3 replies

  1. Sometimes I think that we do not appreciate the extraordinary times and their rareness in which we live. Our parents and grandparents are often saying us that we don’t know what does “really change” means. On our eyes regimes like these in the Arab World collapsed and probably others are waiting in the queue. More and more minorities and ethnic groups, also in Europe, express their aspirations to independence. Are we witnesses of something that could be called “The Second Spring Of Nations” referring to massive revolutions in 1848?
    Financial crisis, rising public debts and the bend of global markets induce birth of such movements like the march of “outraged” in Wall Street. Incredibly interesting is also the situation in Russia. People do not want to live in ignorance. Enhances here the natural need just to be respected by others. Having reached a Western level of consumption in Russia, people want respect, independent courts, lawful police, good health care and education and intelligent television. They are tired of Mr Putin and seeks genuine political representation. For years it was very difficult or let’s say, even impossible to create a tight group fighting for its own interests. Today’s world offers so many communication tools through which people can gather that there is nothing now that we could call “impossible”. Look at the popularity of social media like Facebook Twitter etc. People in Russia were mobilised by social networks rather than political parties. A key figure was Alexei Navalny, a popular blogger, who has used social networking to shake the Kremlin’s power and undermine United Russia. Although Mr Navalny is recognised by only several percent of the population, his image of United Russia as a “party of crooks and thieves” is now recognised by more than two-thirds.
    Internet Revolutions succeeded in Arab World so why couldn’t they succeed in Russia? I have no doubt that Putin will win the upcoming presidential election. But the most important thing is that SOMETHING HAS CHANGED. In my opinion we are witnesses of something that can be called “The birth of Russian citizenry” and even if not in the forthcoming years, soon we will find Russian people entirely conscious of their identity and capabilities.

  2. Kapuściński showed Russia in ‘90s as a country between its communist heritage and the capitalism. In my opinion when Mr. Putin became president the decision was finally made: the longing for the USRR was far stronger than aspirations for western standards. Nevertheless the latest events have shown that something changed and the assent of society for the illimitable governance of politicians from the United Russia Party has run out. It seems that the latest, rigged result of parliamentary election was the last straw and in consequence caused protests in many big Russian cities.
    What makes the demonstration looks seriously is the fact that it is not only people connected directly with opposition parties or members of the human rights organizations that protested against the authorities but the ordinary Russians as well as the celebrities. It appears that they have enough of power abuse. The releases of movies in the internet showing how the election was rigged are proves of Russians’ awareness of how power can be gained in their country.
    Besides, the situation in Russia doesn’t look promising at all. Of course, Russian economy is one of the leading one in the world but it bases on the resources of oil and gas which one day will run out. In the same time the government doesn’t implement new reforms. What is more those who benefit from the exploration of above mentioned resources are few people form government and big concerns.
    Young Russians observe situation in the west. They have enough of corruption, nepotism and abusing of human rights. They want more western standards in their homeland and above all treating them as subject of politics, not the object.
    Nevertheless their initiatives have chances to change Russia only if the charismatic leader shows up – a person who is able to unite the various groups in order to dispose the government to start the dialog with protesters.
    To sum up, I believe that the latest events are the first step to start real changes in Russia.

  3. I regret that during the lecture so little have been said about freshly finished parliamentary elections.
    No doubt, the winner will be again United Russia, chaired by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and favoured by President Dmitry Medvedev. However, the party is also expected to suffer considerable decline of public support which may result in loss of the two-thirds majority and meanwhile the ability to pass changes to the Russian constitution. Such a low gain may occur a total failure of the ruling party, taking into account that since now one term will last 5 years.
    7 parties are attempting to win seats, 4 of which are already represented in State Duma and are said to be reelected. They are: hinted above United Russia, Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), led by a populist Vladimir Zhirinovsky, which essentialy is neither liberal, non democratic and A Fair Russia.
    Parties which are considered to achieve no representation in the parliament are: promoting democratic values and human rights Yabloko, newly registered Right Cause and marginal Patriots of Russia.
    Since year 2000 no Russian elections have been declared free and democratic by western lookouts. Today the opposition also supposes that authorities will be trying to commit the election fraud.
    In my oppinion people of Russia are aware that they do not have proper democracy, but it demands long time until any possitive changes are possible.


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