1. Schift of Power & Crisis / Slides


9 replies

  1. In last recent years some countries have been looking for a new leader instead of United States, why? some people argue that USA has bad influence on some countries when it’s support some regimes like in Middle East who still trying to avoid democracy systems.

    It is obvious that USA aquired its position with economy power,however, nowadays China has also its power, but where is Europe or more specific European Union in this politics game?

    I believe European Union also could play very important role, and we observed that in Arab spring battle when the Arabs asked the union to support the changes in regimes especially in Egypt and Syria.

    Moreover, the Union also has powerful economy somehow but is there any influence come from USA?

  2. China’s growing economic, political, and cultural power is an important global issue; Chinese people are increasingly interested in thinking about their country’s future as a world power.
    This article introduces the special issue ‘China’s futures – and the world’s future’ by discussing how futurology works in China. It argues that Chinese futures studies exhibit two general trends: (1) a shift from locating the future outside China to see China itself as the future, and (2) a shift from officials centrally planning the future to many different people dreaming about many different futures.
    The battle for the future thus is not necessarily between China and the West, but also takes place within the People’s Republic of China amongst different groups of Chinese intellectuals.
    Chinese discussions of the future can tell us about how people in the PRC interact with their own past-present-future, and how they interact with people in other countries in the present.

  3. Following Keivs’ decision for joining EU, Kremlin urges ukrain to pay off its $750 million debt. So we can conclude that first Russia is not happy with Keivs’ west oriented political approch and second they intend to utilize this subject as a pressure leverage on Keiv to change its mind about joining to EU. For Rassia which is looking after playing a more outstanding rle in the management of the world is has a vital importance to keep Ukrain as one of its old affiliate. I guess , the most propable, Russia will offer a more conducive and gererous and considerable economical and political offer to Ukrain to make them to have second thoughts about merging to EU.

  4. It seems inevitable that Europe will gradually lose much of its current influence and impact in geopolitics. The only question is how much will remain in Europe and what we can do to save as much power as possible. At the beginning I would not panic that China is taking over the world. Historically China has always been a power (or even a superpower) with the exception on XVIII century. China economy used to account for even one third of global output and now it is maximum 15 %. It shows we do not live in extraordinary times but “normality” is coming back. European influence is decreasing as its economy is weak, stagnant and do not generate innovation. It seems obvious in the next hundred 100 years Europe will not be as powerful as in XVIII and XIX century. Europe economy should rely on knowledge, innovation and technology as it cannot any longer compete with cheap labour force. The problem is organizations like European Union produce too much needless legislation, and unnecessary regulations make it even harder to innovate and invest in Europe. Either some radical changes are made or in 50 years Europe will be mostly known for its architectural heritage.

  5. The name of the ruler in North Korea really does not matter, as the country is run by a committee of the military and the name of the ruler is just something given to the people for them to worship (it has been said Protestant Christianity is popular in the South because compared to Korean Confucianism it is a mild and easy doctrine. The system in the North is Confucian emperor worship with communist additions). The sad truth is that the USA has not interest in unifying Korea as the South, as dominant power, would become a nuclear state power with a fabulous economy which would change the geo political scene for Japan and China, with both also acquiring nuclear weapons. This has serious implications for the world, not just the region…



  6. The Société Générale report on China published in January 2012 states that China has lost control over her financial sector and her economy is stable no more. China has developed an economy driven by exports, so the U.S. in recession as well as the E.U. in recession makes her economic model unsustainable. One-child-policy is killing China’s productivity: the current generation can work for a decade more, but then the demographic problem will arise. Moreover, the younger generation has no gender balance. Millions of Chinese men will seek women abroad. China may suddenly stop as Japan has halted after booming 1980s. Japan was the main fear of the U.S. under Reagan and Bush and was overlapped by America. The story may repeat itself again.

  7. In the The last days of Europe there is a very unfavorable but very possible scenario for the old continent. This book was written by Walter Laqueur in 2007. Many trends which he mentioned in his book we are observing now.
    For very long time Europe was a political, economical and cultural leader in the world. But now, Europe is weaker and weaker. The main problem of Europe is demography – a very low birthrate. In Europe there is also a problem with muslims immigrants who do not want to integrate. In Europe we can observe some negative things like xenophobia. We all remebmer the tragedy in Norway.

  8. Staying, in the discussion about Korea, I would indicate to a much more positive scenario. As the history showed several times, sometimes turnovers come quicker than anyone could expect, and I hope it will also work in the this case. Last year there was made an econmoic survey and simulation, which shown that if Soth Korea would integrate with North Korea they became one of the strongest economies in the world, even stronger than France, Germany or Japan. Moreover, the cost of unification would be twice smaller than the cost of Germany’s reunification. Both countries would profit from such a merger. On the other hand, the growth of united Korea would not be welcomed warmly by Russia or China, even Japan and would definately shift the power.

  9. As we all know, North Korea leader Kim Jong-il died 17th December 2011. I believe it cannot remain without any influence on the current global situation. The question is how and to what extent it will affect our world? First of all, the successor, Kim Jong-un, has little experience and is not really prepared to rule North Korea. As Kim Jong-il didn’t want to designate his follower from among his sons in order to avoid any of them build his own power base, Kim Jong-un faced the fact of possible leadership only in 2008 after his father’s stroke. Now, it is really probable that it would be his uncle, Jang Sung-theak, who will secretly rule the country until Kim Jong-un gains some necessary skills. That can lead to an internal conflict, as there are always those who benefit from the situation and those who lose. The next important doubt is the status of military. There are no signals about the army being likely to oppose the new ruler and in this case there’s going to be no structural changes in North Korea. But we still have to remember about North Korea’s nuclear program and its growing dependence on China. The fear of nuclear conflict is present in the world and taking the new unknown, unpredictable and untested young ruler of North Korea into account, it is going to raise. The USA, South Korea and Japan will probably enlarge military forces in this region, but China is of course on the side of its only regional ally – North Korea. That can lead to inexpedient tensions between two great powers. So increasing importance of China and possible conflict in the Korean peninsula is what we should consider and carefully watch.


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